摩根大通预测比特币ETF长期增长有限
摩根大通预计，由于资产估值，比特币现货ETF的长期资产管理规模增长可能受限于黄金
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JPMorgan predicts a $62 billion market for Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2 to 3 years.
Published: March 8, 2024 | 1 min read
J.P. Morgan, a well-known name in the financial industry, has cast doubt on the long-term growth potential of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In a recent report, the bank’s analysts expressed skepticism about the valuations of Bitcoin compared to gold and how this will impact the growth of ETFs.
Are Bitcoin ETFs Overvalued?
Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou argue that when considering Bitcoin ETFs as a substitute for gold and adjusting for volatility, their implied “realistic size” over the next two to three years is only $62 billion[^1^]. This is significantly lower than what more bullish crypto analysts project for these ETFs, which have already attracted $9.3 billion in net flows since their launch just two months ago. Combined with the price appreciation of Bitcoin, ETFs such as Grayscale have seen their assets under management (AUM) rise from $30 billion to over $50 billion[^2^].
JPMorgan warns that bullish projections do not adequately account for the risks associated with Bitcoin and are therefore overestimating the share of portfolios that investors will allocate to the cryptocurrency. The bank contends that given Bitcoin’s volatility, which is around 3.7 times higher than that of gold, it is unrealistic to expect Bitcoin to match gold in terms of notional amounts within investors’ portfolios[^3^].
To illustrate their point, JPMorgan divides the amount of gold currently held by investors ($3.3 trillion) by Bitcoin’s volatility against gold (3.7) and arrives at a total Bitcoin allocation figure of $900 billion[^3^]. Based on this calculation, the price per coin would be around $45,000, a far cry from Bitcoin’s current market price of $69,000[^3^].
How Does Gold Compare to Bitcoin?
Gold and Bitcoin are often compared due to their similar qualities as investment vehicles. Both lack intrinsic cash flows, but they are difficult to produce more of, making them attractive hedges against inflation. Gold ETFs in the United States hold approximately $92 trillion in assets[^4^]. Bitcoin ETFs, on the other hand, are the next largest commodity ETFs in the country.
CEO of BlackRock, Larry Fink, has frequently referred to Bitcoin as “digital gold” when discussing Bitcoin ETFs and has described investors’ appetite for the cryptocurrency as a “flight to quality”[^5^].
Q&A: Answering Your Bitcoin ETF Questions
Q: Is JPMorgan suggesting that Bitcoin ETFs are a bad investment?
A: JPMorgan’s report highlights the potential risks associated with Bitcoin and questions the lofty valuations of Bitcoin ETFs. It suggests that investors may be overly optimistic about the growth of these ETFs. However, it’s important to note that investment decisions should consider multiple perspectives and individual risk tolerance.
Q: Can Bitcoin match gold’s status within investment portfolios?
A: JPMorgan argues that due to Bitcoin’s higher volatility compared to gold, it is unrealistic to expect Bitcoin to be allocated in the same notional amounts as gold within investors’ portfolios. However, opinions vary on this matter, and future market developments may impact the relative position of Bitcoin and gold in portfolios.
Q: How do gold and Bitcoin compare as hedges against inflation?
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甲：黄金和比特币都被认为是抗通胀的强大避险工具，因为它们的供应有限且历史表现优异。然而，每种资产都有其独特的特点和风险概况。建议投资者实现资产多元化，并在制定投资策略时寻求专业建议。
未来展望：趋势、分析和建议
尽管摩根大通的分析引发了对比特币ETF未来增长的质疑，但重要的是考虑可能影响其发展轨迹的其他因素。市场趋势、监管发展和机构采用都将对加密货币投资领域的不断演变产生影响。
在短期内，不容忽视比特币周围的受欢迎程度和兴奋情绪。资金流入ETF和比特币价格上涨展示了寻求接触这一数字资产的投资者的热情。然而，投资者有必要仔细评估与加密货币相关的风险，并做出符合其投资目标和风险承受能力的明智决策。
无论比特币ETF经历有限的长期增长或继续蓬勃发展，彻底研究并了解市场趋势的重要性仍然是至关重要的。与任何投资一样，多元化和及时了解监管发展对于应对不断演变的数字资产领域至关重要。
参考资料：1. 摩根大通关于比特币ETF的报告 2. Grayscale 3. 比特币与黄金比较 4. 美国黄金ETF 5. 拉里·芬克对比特币的看法
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免责声明：本文仅供参考，不应视为财务建议。在做任何投资决定之前，请进行自己的研究并咨询专业人士。
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